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Nifty closes June in positive, despite the global headwinds

1 Jul 2025 , 02:12 PM

FPIS BUY EQUITIES in JUNE 2025; SELL IN DEBT

After gaining 3.5% in April and 1.7% in May; Nifty showed gains 3.1% in June 2025. This is a positive trend, despite macro headwinds. FPI sentiments were mixed in June. For instance, June 2025 saw FPI infusion of ₹14,590 Crore into equities but selling of ₹(22,153) Crore in debt; resulting in overall FPI outflows of ₹(7,563) Crore. A lot depends on whether India can seal the trade deal before July 09, 2025, although there are too many loose ends. On the positive side, RBI cut rates by 50 bps in June and also cut CRR by 100 bps to boost liquidity. At the same time, India reported a current account surplus of $13.5 Billion in Q4FY25; leading to full year FY25 current account deficit (CAD) at just 0.6% of GDP. Let us now look at Nifty returns on various parameters.

MOMENTUM RETURNS – NIFTY POSITIVE IN JUNE 2025

With Nifty index up 3.10% in June 2025, there were 38 gainers and 12 losers in terms of 1-month returns. While the positive side returns averaged 5.05%, the negative side returns were -1.32%, triggered by FMCG and Auto stocks. Here are top-15 on monthly returns.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
JIOFIN	327.40	13.99%	-8.77%	363.00	198.65	64.81%	9.81%
GRASIM	2,841.00	11.73%	6.52%	2,896.00	2,276.95	24.77%	1.90%
ETERNAL	263.95	10.84%	32.17%	304.70	194.56	35.67%	13.37%
SHRIRAMFIN	707.25	10.56%	-75.72%	730.45	493.35	43.36%	3.18%
TRENT	6,202.50	10.17%	13.46%	8,345.00	4,488.00	38.20%	25.67%
BEL	422.80	9.59%	37.79%	426.50	240.25	75.98%	0.87%
HINDALCO	692.85	9.37%	-0.10%	772.65	546.45	26.79%	10.33%
BHARTIARTL	2,008.70	8.26%	39.16%	2,039.00	1,408.45	42.62%	1.49%
ULTRACEMCO	12,085.00	7.88%	3.64%	12,339.00	10,047.85	20.27%	2.06%
TECHM	1,685.40	7.19%	17.94%	1,807.70	1,209.40	39.36%	6.77%
M&M	3,178.80	6.93%	11.04%	3,270.95	2,425.00	31.08%	2.82%
INDUSINDBK	873.00	6.75%	-40.45%	1,498.00	606.00	44.06%	41.72%
WIPRO	266.49	6.53%	-48.34%	324.60	228.00	16.88%	17.90%
EICHERMOT	5,640.00	6.06%	21.05%	5,906.50	4,508.75	25.09%	4.51%
HCLTECH	1,732.00	5.62%	18.43%	2,012.20	1,302.75	32.95%	13.93%

Data Source: NSE

Which are the sectors that showed momentum in the last one month? The top 15 stocks had 3 Financials, 3 IT Stocks, 2 Auto stocks, 2 commodity stocks and 2 consumer stocks. Financials have been the star performers in last few months, with Bank Nifty touching life-time highs. While IT is seeing demand as a dollar defensive amidst the currency volatility, other preferred stocks are the India consumer and capex-oriented stocks.

LONGER TERM RETURNS – NIFTY STORY FOR YEAR TO JUNE 2025

With Nifty index 1-Year returns robust at 6.27% in June 2025, there were 25 gainers and 25 losers. While the positive side returns were 16.24%, the negative side were -12.23%. Here are the top-15 on Annual Returns.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
BHARTIARTL	2,008.70	8.26%	39.16%	2,039.00	1,408.45	42.62%	1.49%
BEL	422.80	9.59%	37.79%	426.50	240.25	75.98%	0.87%
HDFCLIFE	812.70	4.82%	36.85%	820.75	584.30	39.09%	0.98%
ETERNAL	263.95	10.84%	32.17%	304.70	194.56	35.67%	13.37%
BAJAJFINSV	2,055.10	1.91%	29.46%	2,135.00	1,523.25	34.92%	3.74%
SBILIFE	1,833.90	1.44%	23.21%	1,936.00	1,372.55	33.61%	5.27%
EICHERMOT	5,640.00	6.06%	21.05%	5,906.50	4,508.75	25.09%	4.51%
ICICIBANK	1,449.00	0.20%	20.52%	1,471.60	1,153.00	25.67%	1.54%
KOTAKBANK	2,160.00	4.28%	20.03%	2,301.90	1,679.05	28.64%	6.16%
HDFCBANK	2,000.00	2.91%	18.87%	2,027.10	1,588.05	25.94%	1.34%
HCLTECH	1,732.00	5.62%	18.43%	2,012.20	1,302.75	32.95%	13.93%
TECHM	1,685.40	7.19%	17.94%	1,807.70	1,209.40	39.36%	6.77%
APOLLOHOSP	7,238.00	5.25%	17.08%	7,545.35	6,001.00	20.61%	4.07%
TRENT	6,202.50	10.17%	13.46%	8,345.00	4,488.00	38.20%	25.67%
M&M	3,178.80	6.93%	11.04%	3,270.95	2,425.00	31.08%	2.82%

Data Source: NSE

Which Nifty stock segments showed best long term returns? The top 15 stocks by 1-year returns had 6 BFSI companies, 2 Auto stocks, and 2 Tech plays. If you look at the bottom 15, there were deep cuts in Wipro, IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors, Asian Paints, Adani Enterprises, Coal India, and Bajaj Auto. Autos have been mixed, with the export oriented auto companies being hit the hardest.

NIFTY RESILIENCE SHOWS PANACHE IN JUNE 2025

A proxy for resilience is the extent of bounce from 52-Week lows. For the Nifty index, the bounce from the low of the year improved to 13.83%. Out of 50 stocks in the Nifty, 9 stocks bounced over 40% from the lows. A total of 18 stocks have bounced more than 30% and 33 stocks bounced more than 20%, from the lows of the year.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
BEL	422.80	9.59%	37.79%	426.50	240.25	75.98%	0.87%
JIOFIN	327.40	13.99%	-8.77%	363.00	198.65	64.81%	9.81%
BAJFINANCE	937.00	-89.80%	-86.84%	978.80	642.50	45.84%	4.27%
ADANIPORTS	1,444.10	1.21%	-1.89%	1,604.95	995.65	45.04%	10.02%
INDUSINDBK	873.00	6.75%	-40.45%	1,498.00	606.00	44.06%	41.72%
SHRIRAMFIN	707.25	10.56%	-75.72%	730.45	493.35	43.36%	3.18%
BHARTIARTL	2,008.70	8.26%	39.16%	2,039.00	1,408.45	42.62%	1.49%
TECHM	1,685.40	7.19%	17.94%	1,807.70	1,209.40	39.36%	6.77%
HDFCLIFE	812.70	4.82%	36.85%	820.75	584.30	39.09%	0.98%
TRENT	6,202.50	10.17%	13.46%	8,345.00	4,488.00	38.20%	25.67%
ETERNAL	263.95	10.84%	32.17%	304.70	194.56	35.67%	13.37%
BAJAJFINSV	2,055.10	1.91%	29.46%	2,135.00	1,523.25	34.92%	3.74%
RELIANCE	1,499.90	5.61%	-52.07%	1,608.80	1,114.85	34.54%	6.77%
SBILIFE	1,833.90	1.44%	23.21%	1,936.00	1,372.55	33.61%	5.27%
HCLTECH	1,732.00	5.62%	18.43%	2,012.20	1,302.75	32.95%	13.93%

Data Source: NSE

Which sectors showed best resilience in last 1 year? The top 15 stocks had 7 BFSI stocks and 2 IT Plays. If you look at the bottom 15, the strugglers include several marquee defensive stocks like (ITC, Hindustan Unilever, Asian Paints, Sun Pharma, Cipla etc). Stocks like Jio Finance, Bharti Airtel, and BEL are at the top on multiple counts. The top 10 stocks gave average bounce of 47.84% while the top 20 stocks bounced 39.91% from lows.

SWING STORY – HOW CLOSE ARE NIFTY STOCKS TO YEARLY HIGHS?

Swing measures the distance of the stock price to the yearly high. Lower the gap, higher the favourable swing. Nifty swing has improved to 2.89% in June 2025. Out of the 50 stocks in the Nifty, 14 stocks are less than 5% away from their 52-week highs, while a total of 24 stocks are less than 10% away. Swing has improved meaningfully in June 2025.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
BEL	422.80	9.59%	37.79%	426.50	240.25	75.98%	0.87%
HDFCLIFE	812.70	4.82%	36.85%	820.75	584.30	39.09%	0.98%
HDFCBANK	2,000.00	2.91%	18.87%	2,027.10	1,588.05	25.94%	1.34%
BHARTIARTL	2,008.70	8.26%	39.16%	2,039.00	1,408.45	42.62%	1.49%
ICICIBANK	1,449.00	0.20%	20.52%	1,471.60	1,153.00	25.67%	1.54%
GRASIM	2,841.00	11.73%	6.52%	2,896.00	2,276.95	24.77%	1.90%
ULTRACEMCO	12,085.00	7.88%	3.64%	12,339.00	10,047.85	20.27%	2.06%
M&M	3,178.80	6.93%	11.04%	3,270.95	2,425.00	31.08%	2.82%
SHRIRAMFIN	707.25	10.56%	-75.72%	730.45	493.35	43.36%	3.18%
BAJAJFINSV	2,055.10	1.91%	29.46%	2,135.00	1,523.25	34.92%	3.74%
APOLLOHOSP	7,238.00	5.25%	17.08%	7,545.35	6,001.00	20.61%	4.07%
BAJFINANCE	937.00	-89.80%	-86.84%	978.80	642.50	45.84%	4.27%
EICHERMOT	5,640.00	6.06%	21.05%	5,906.50	4,508.75	25.09%	4.51%
TITAN	3,688.00	3.80%	8.40%	3,867.00	2,925.00	26.09%	4.63%
JSWSTEEL	1,018.55	2.72%	9.55%	1,074.90	854.15	19.25%	5.24%

Data Source: NSE

Which sectors showed best swing in last 1 year? The top 15 stocks had 6 Financials, 3 Commodity stocks, and 2 Auto stocks. If you look at the bottom 15 by swing, it was dominated by bottom-up stories like IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors, Bajaj Auto, Hero Moto, Asian Paints, ONGC, Coal India, and Trent. Autos continue to be under pressure, due to the export tariff factor. The top 10 stocks had an average swing of 1.99% while the top 20 stocks averaged 3.75% for June 2025. Clearly, financials look to be showing the best momentum; with commodities and auto stocks also chipping in!

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